Interesting Times

I recently had lunch with a dear friend and we began a conversation that wandered around the world. Comparing notes, my conclusion is that it is worse than I thought and things are accelerating.

We are already familiar with the Ukraine conflict. Whether it is analogous to Spain in the 1930s or Manchuria in the 1900s, Ukraine represents a conflict between great powers testing each other’s equipment.

There is more happening already.

Consider the strip of countries across sub-saharan Africa. The recent headlines focus on Niger and perhaps even include Burkino Faso and Mali. However, a map from the BBC shows a more comprehensive story.

Focusing on the last couple of decades, Russia’s Wagner group has effectively staged coups across all of sub-saharan Africa. The prize for these takeovers are gold, diamonds and other minerals. As my friend said, no wonder Prigozhin is still alive. He controls this wealth and it is wealth that Russia needs right now. It could be oil in Niger that the West wants to control. It is just/more likely that Gold for Russia is the real reason.

There is a second piece to this and it also involves the grain embargoes. As sub-Saharan Africa  becomes less stable, more refugees flee to the north and across the Mediterranean to Europe. Add famine to the wars and these numbers become even greater.

After seeing the unrest in France and the election moves of Italy, is there any doubt that refugees are a key to Russia’s strategy to cause instability in Europe?

Moving east to Asia and the middle east, there is a tremendous amount of activity where China, Russia and the US are working to reshape diplomatic boundaries. China’s recent steps to reconcile Iran and KSA were likely more show than real giving China a win, but also giving  a more assertive KSA the ability to show the US it is comfortable moving independently.

This was followed by the KSA hosting a summit for all concerned parties, excluding Russia, to discuss a pathway out of the Ukraine, Russia conflict. There is growing acknowledgement, including NATO leadership, that the conflict will result in an exchange of territory for peace. The unsaid reality is that Ukraine may follow China on a demographic decline as the country has seen huge losses of young men at the front.

While this was occurring, the US made overtures to Iran to pay $1.2 billion per person for 5 prisoners to be released to house arrest. The movement of Iranian funds from S. Korea to Qatar is not quite as blatant as landing an aircraft with billions of dollars in Tehran, but it has the same impact. Just as politicians pass a law allowing the lottery to “pay for education” then divert education funds, Iran’s leaders will certainly redirect the money for health and welfare to other nefarious efforts.

Looking toward Iran’s eastern borders may explain a reason for seeking new funds. The newly equipped Taliban have been making noise on Iran’s borders as they perceive the treatment of fellow Sunni Muslims to be sub-standard. Freshly armed with state of the art weapons, this is a significant consideration for Tehran.

To a bit east and north of Afghanistan, the balance of the “stans” were invited to Xian to literally Kowtow before President Xi in a ceremony reminiscent of Dynastys past. China’s friend without limits had to be concerned when the Chinese announced that they would use Chinese names for Vladivostok on official maps. When he became president of China, Xi announced that all parts that were once China will be part of China again. Most people focused on the South China sea, especially Taiwan. Few would have considered that the Chinese still harbor ill feelings toward Russia’s annexation of part s of Manchuria at the end of World War 2.

Is it beyond conception that President Xi would “assist” his “friend” Putin by protecting those lands should there be unrest while Russia continues its fights in Eastern Europe?

For Taiwan, it is interesting to note that there are in fact some small islands less than 1 mile from China’s mainland that are officially considered a part of Taiwan. There is no technical challenge for China to land several brigades of marines on these or other less occupied islands daring the US to respond. Such an “invasion” of Taiwan would be a major home win for Xi and an embarrassment to the US.

Not to be outdone, the presidents of the US, S. Korea and Japan met at Camp David this weekend. This was only a slightly easier conversation than those that Carter hosted between Palestinians and Israelis. The discussions, no-doubt, make China nervous about an Asian NATO.

And last, though perhaps least, the old friend of US presidents, Daniel Ortega reiterated that he would host Russian cruise missiles with ranges that reach Dallas, Miami and perhaps Los Angeles.

Make no mistake, the world is rattling. Discussions of wokeness are a distraction from the increasing international tensions that portend a major global conflict. Unfortunately, we are being led by a generation that doesn’t understand the consequences of such things.